This article is about the chances of Pakistan Super League teams to qualify for the playoffs. 24 matches of the group stages have been played while 6 matches are still left; however, there are 64 different scenarios which can come out after these 6 matches.
The 6 matches which will be played are:
- Match#25: Multan Sultans vs Islamabad United
- Match#26: Quetta Gladiators vs Lahore Qalandars
- Match#27: Peshawar Zalmi vs Karachi Kings
- Match#28: Quetta Gladiators vs Islamabad United
- Match#29: Peshawar Zalmi vs Lahore Qalandars
- Match#30: Islamabad United vs Karachi Kings
Now the chances of every team to qualify for the playoffs will be explained below starting from least likely to most likely team to qualify:
(Note: Probability of matches that will be decided on the basis of NRR is assumed to be half the probability of team qualifying absolutely)
1. Lahore Qalandars – 0%
Lahore Qalandars have 0% chances to qualify for the Playoffs to PSL 2018 in all 64 scenarios.
2. Peshawar Zalmi – 22.7%
Peshawar Zalmi need to clearly win both of their matches in order to create a chance for them to qualify. Out of 64 scenarios, Peshawar can qualify in only 13 scenarios while 3 scenarios will go down to the NRR. Either Karachi Kings or Multan Sultans need to lose their remaining matches and Peshawar need to win their both or Either Islamabad or Quetta stays on the table with 10 points and Peshawar win their both and manages to get a better NRR than the team with 10 points, then Peshawar will play the playoffs.
3. Karachi Kings – 90.6%
Karachi Kings is looking safe as they are qualifying in 56 scenarios out of the total 64 scenarios while in 4 scenarios they will be eliminated and in the remaining 4, NRR will decide the qualification. The four scenarios in which Karachi fails to qualify is when they lose their matches from Peshawar and Islamabad and Peshawar and Multan win their remaining matches. While the scenarios in which the qualification will be decided by NRR is when both Multan and Karachi fails to win their remaining matches.
4. Multan Sultans – 96.9%
Multan Sultans the new team is looking comfortable despite winning just 4 games out of their 9 matches, Multan Sultans is qualifying in 60 scenarios out of 64, while the remaining 4 scenarios will be decided by the NRR. The four scenarios are when Karachi Kings fails to win their remaining both matches.
5. Islamabad United – 98.4%
The second position holder in the points table after 24 matches have 98.4% chance to qualify for the playoffs of PSL 2018. Out of 64 scenarios, they will qualify in 62 scenarios while in the remaining 2, NRR will decide the fate and that would happen if Peshawar wins their both. If Peshawar manages to get a better NRR than Islamabad then Islamabad will have to go back home along with Lahore.
6. Quetta Gladiators – 99.2%
Interestingly the table topper of the points table have not qualified for the playoffs after 80% matches of the group stages, you are guessing it right, Quetta can still be disqualified and that is the only one scenario out of the total 64. If Multan wins from Islamabad, Lahore wins from Quetta, Peshawar wins from Karachi, Islamabad wins from Quetta, Peshawar wins from Lahore and Karachi wins from Islamabad, then in that case Peshawar and Quetta will both have 10 points and will also have 1-1 head to head in group stages, then the NRR of both teams will decide the qualification and if NRR of Peshawar is better than Quetta than Quetta the table topper will be disqualified.
Now coming to the the chances of every team to secure a place in Top 2 position will be stated below:
1. Islamabad United – 81.3%
Islamabad United looks hot favourite to secure their place in top 2 spots of the points table. They need to win at least 2 of their matches to secure their place for sure, while 1 win out of 3 would take it in the court of NRR.
2. Quetta Gladiators – 65.6%
Quetta Gladiators need to win their both matches to secure position in top 2 spots, or win 1 match and hope Karachi to win less than 3 matches or Karachi wins all 3 and Islamabad wins none. Otherwise 1 win for Quetta can also decide their position on the basis of NRR.
3. Karachi Kings – 37.5%
Karachi still have a chance to secure a spot in top 2 positions, Out of 64, in 20 cases they can be among top 2 teams for sure and that will happen if Karachi wins all 3 games; however, even if they win 2 matches, they still can do it and that is possible in 4 scenarios out of 64, while in 8 scenarios when Multan also win their match then the NRR will decide the result.
4. Multan Sultans – 7%
Multan got a very bleak chance to claim the spot in top 2 positions, they have to first of their last game and then hope they have a better NRR than Karachi if they win only 1 game out of 3; however, if Karachi wins more than 1 match then Multan wont have much chance as the question will come on the NRR. Multan can also reach top 2 spots even without relying on NRR and that is only possible in just 1 scenario in which if Quetta & Karachi fails to win any match and Multan wins their match.
Peshawar Zalmi who is the last team in the race of qualification cannot reach the top 2 seats in points table in Playoff in any scenario.
Out of these various 64 combinations, only 1 will occur after completion of the group stages, thats it from the article.